Chessville - Reference Center - Win Percentage Expectancies Based on Rating Differences

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Winning Percentage Expectancies
Based On Rating Differences
with thanks to J. Varsoke

H: % of games expected to be won by the higher rated player
L: % of games expected to be won by the lower rated player

Rating Diff.	H	L	Rating Diff.	H	L	Rating Diff.	H	L	Rating Diff.	H	L
000-003	50	50	092-098	63	37	198-206	76	24	345-357	89	11
004-010	51	49	099-106	64	36	207-215	77	23	358-374	90	10
011-017	52	48	107-113	65	35	216-225	78	22	375-391	91	09
018-025	53	47	114-121	66	34	226-235	79	21	392-411	92	08
026-032	54	46	122-129	67	33	236-245	80	20	412-432	93	07
033-039	55	45	130-137	68	32	246-256	81	19	433-456	94	06
040-046	56	44	138-145	69	31	257-267	82	18	457-484	95	05
047-053	57	43	146-153	70	30	268-278	83	17	485-517	96	04
054-061	58	42	154-162	71	29	279-290	84	16	518-559	97	03
062-068	59	41	163-170	72	28	291-302	85	15	560-619	98	02
069-076	60	40	171-179	73	27	303-315	86	14	620-735	99	01
077-083	61	39	180-188	74	26	316-328	87	13	over-735	100	00
084-091	62	38	189-197	75	25	329-344	88	12

Find the difference in rating between the two combatants, and see what the higher-rated player's winning expectancy is. Clearly these percentages are more likely to be accurate over a series of games, as in a match, while anything might happen in a single game!

Example 1: Player A is rated 1950, Player B is rated 1880. The difference is 70, which gives Player A a 60% probability of winning. Over the course of a ten-game match, Player A should expect to score six points.

Example 2: Garry Kasparov is rated 2817 (as of July 2004). Rustam Kasimdzhanov is rated 2640 (also as of July 2004). The difference is 177, which gives Kasparov a 73% probability of winning. Over the course of a ten-game match, Kasparov should expect to score 7 or 7.5 points.

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